The relative social and biophysical sensitivities and ecological resiliency of the reserves provide important insights into the potential climate change dynamics in the NERR system. The indicators developed for this report, as well as future projections of sea level rise and temperature, help provide a more robust examination of climate sensitivity and vulnerability of the NERRS. The approach also allows a comparison of spatial trends between the climate change indicators, contrasting and emphasizing potential climate change impacts at the reserve level and across the Reserve System.
The climate sensitivity and vulnerability indices we used in this report are as follows:
- Measurement of sensitivity for social conditions was achieved through analysis of societal characteristics and associated sensitivity scores within reserve-defined geographic boundaries and within contiguous coastal counties surrounding the reserve.
- The sensitivity of biophysical water conditions in the NERR system represents a measure of dynamic responsiveness to climate change and was measured by examining the connectedness between empirical water quality variables, such as temperature and specific conductivity, and the climate variables of precipitation and air temperature.
- The ecological resiliency analysis of the NERRS helped elucidate the possible impacts of potential climate stressors. This resiliency measure differed from other indices in this project in that it was based on the expert opinion of all available reserve staff and not directly on empirical data.
- Sea level rise information was based on the Coastal Vulnerability Index established by scientists at the United States Geological Survey (Hammar-Klose and Thieler, 2001). This assessment of coastal vulnerability to future sea level rise combines information about coastal geomorphology, shoreline erosion and accretion rates, coastal slope, rate of relative sea level rise, mean tidal range, and mean wave height. We assigned a score for each reserve based on the highest USGS score within the reserve boundaries.
- Air temperature rise is a main component of global climate change so we used an index of projected change in annual average atmospheric temperature by the 2050s. Data for this analysis are based on online, web-based projections from The Climate Wizard Tool (http://www.climatewizard.org/AboutUs.html).
KEY FINDINGS
The salient points that can be drawn from the synthesis of the five indices in this report predict that:
- All reserves will be impacted by climate change at some level, with all reserves having one or more indices rated as relatively High (or Very High).
- Social sensitivity is of particular concern along the West Coast and at isolated reserves in the Caribbean (Jobos Bay NERR, PR), Great Lakes (Lake Superior NERR, WI), and Gulf of Mexico (Mission-Aransas NERR, TX, and Apalachicola NERR, FL).
- Biophysical sensitivity is of highest relative concern at isolated reserves in the Southeast (ACE Basin NERR, SC, and Sapelo Island NERR, GA) and on the West Coast. The relevance of biophysical sensitivities at each reserve will also be determined by the natural resource management objectives of that reserve.
- Sea level rise will be a concern across all regions, with slightly less impact predicted for the Northeast than for other regions.
- Temperature change exposure will be a concern over most regions, with the largest effects in the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
- The climate change indicators do not all co-vary. This means that reserves will have to consider different climate change stressors for their climate change vulnerability assessments and plan management strategies accordingly.
- Comparison of indicators reveals several reserves with notable climate change sensitivity. In relative terms, the Tijuana River NERR is the site that exhibits the highest risk to climate change impacts, when looking across all five indices. Waquoit Bay NERR is also at high risk.
- A better understanding of climate change vulnerability at the individual reserve level will require reserve-specific analyses.
Some salient points related to integrated approaches that were learned through this effort include:
- Defining an approach, strategy, or research effort as integrated at the onset helps to define expectations and roles, which leads to more coherent and collaborative integration.
- Integrated approaches need to include time for interdisciplinary learning. The language, methods, and concepts of disciplines are often different, and, as a result, integrated projects create learning opportunities and enhance perspective for all involved.
- Integration of data across disciplines can prove quite challenging; however, even when quantitative integration of data is not possible, qualitative integration can produce valuable results and important insights.
References
Hammar-Klose, E.S., & Thieler, E.R. (2001) Coastal vulnerability to sea level rise: A preliminary database for the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico Coasts [Online]. U.S. Geological Survey Digital Data Series – 68. Available: http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds68/.